HOUSE CONTROL MARKET▲ 2.1 pts / 24h
73.0%Democratic
control
control
73.0% D
27.0% R
Race-model expected seatsD 225.0—R 210.0
7 days agoNow
2026 MIDTERMS • 92 DAYS
MARKET COMPOSITE · BETALast updated Aug 5 · 3:00 PM CT
Kalshi PredictIt Polymarket
THE MARKET’S KOOKY READ ON 2026
Democrats lead the race for the House.
The Senate is balanced on a knife’s edge.
Prediction markets put Democratic House control at 73.0%, up 3 points this week. Direct Senate-control markets put Democrats at 51.0%. The separate seat model averages 225.0 Democratic House seats and 50.8 Democratic Senate seats.
Since yesterday’s 3 PM snapshot: Daily mover comparisons will appear after two complete 3 PM snapshots.
DAILY TOP MOVERS
What may be moving the markets
Building the first verified day-over-day comparison.The section publishes only after current and prior 3 PM snapshots can be matched race by race.
Story links identify plausible catalysts, not proven causes. Market moves can also reflect liquidity, new orders, or venue-specific repricing.
SENATE CONTROL MARKET▲ 0.7 pts / 24h
51.0%Democratic
control
control
51.0% D
49.0% R
Race-model expected seatsD 50.8—R 49.2
7 days agoNow
IMPLIED SEAT TOTALS
The shape of the majority
HOUSE
225.0 expected D seats
218for control
218
220
222
224
226
228
230
232
80% range221–229 Democratic seats
SENATE
50.8 expected D seats
51for control*
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
80% range49–52 Democratic seats
*Expected seats are averages and can be fractional. Actual outcomes and distribution bars remain whole-seat counts. A 50–50 Senate is not Democratic control in 2026 because the Republican vice president breaks ties.
COMPETITIVE RACES
The road to control
RaceCook ratingComposite probability24h7-day trendVolume
AlaskaSullivan (R)
45.0% D
55.0% R
+2.2
$3.4mmatched
MaineCollins (R)
61.0% D
39.0% R
+5.9
$5.8mmatched
MichiganOpen seat
62.0% D
38.0% R
+3.5
$7.1mmatched
OhioHusted (R)
46.0% D
54.0% R
-1.2
$6.2mmatched
GeorgiaOssoff (D)
88.0% D
12.0% R
+1.8
$6.9mmatched
North CarolinaOpen seat
87.0% D
13.0% R
+0.9
$8.3mmatched
New HampshireOpen seat
85.0% D
15.0% R
-0.6
$3.1mmatched
MinnesotaOpen seat
92.0% D
8.0% R
+0.3
$1.7mmatched
IowaOpen seat
40.0% D
60.0% R
+2.7
$4.2mmatched
TexasPaxton (R)
43.0% D
57.0% R
+5.2
$9.8mmatched
Cook ratings are collected once daily from the House and Senate ratings pages. Every Lean, Likely, and Toss Up race appears here; races without a matched prediction-market contract are clearly marked.
CROSS-SITE ARBITRAGE
Verified, fee-adjusted gaps
Each row pairs a YES purchase on one venue with a NO purchase on another. The two legs pay a combined $1 in either outcome. Rankings use the lower of the two outcome profits after published trading and settlement fees—not the headline probability gap. Monthly returns account for the estimated time until resolution.
Terms matchedPositive after fees only
Checking prices, fees, and contract terms…Fresh quotes can take a few seconds.
Fee assumptions. PredictIt charges 10% of profit on the winning contract; its separate 5% account-withdrawal charge is not assigned to an individual trade. Polymarket politics taker fees use each market’s live fee parameters. Kalshi’s quadratic taker fee and series multiplier are included, but its current “sworn in,” Speaker, and president-pro-tempore settlement language is excluded when it does not match the other venue exactly.
Execution caveat. These are top-of-book snapshots, not trade recommendations. Quotes can move between the two purchases, available size can be smaller than shown, and venue access rules still apply.
HOW TO READ THIS
One signal, three markets.
For each outcome, Kooky Politics Indicators combines the latest executable market price from Kalshi, PredictIt, and Polymarket. Each exchange is weighted by matched lifetime dollar notional for that race, so a thin market cannot overpower a deeper one.
Seat distributions are calculated from the individual race probabilities using a Poisson-binomial model, with uncontested and Solid-rated seats treated as fixed. Cook ratings determine which races appear; they do not alter the market probability. Until enough stored history accrues, deltas and sparklines are explicitly shown as a launch snapshot.
COMPOSITEΣ (market probability × matched $ volume)÷Σ matched $ volume